Overview
For centuries, governments across the world have collected data about changes in the size, composition and movements of their populations as an essential instrument for ensuring effective governance. In democratic societies, politicians rely on demographic information to justify and legitimise policy interventions. The relationship between the population trends reported in the statistics and policymaking in context is complex, contingent and interactive. Not only are governments expected to respond to socio-demographic change, but their policies may also shape population change in ways that are not always anticipated, wanted or direct. Specific policies can prove to be necessary but insufficient conditions to bring about the changes sought. Even if a policy measure serves as a catalyst or trigger for change, it is difficult to identify and isolate the effects of an individual measure and to track and interpret outcomes in situations where policies have multiple objectives.
How to respond to or influence the effects population growth, decline, renewal, migration and ageing is recognised as one of the major global challenges facing contemporary societies. Like climate change and public health, demographic trends raise cross-cutting issues requiring long-term answers. In most democratic societies, it is in the nature and interests of governments to seek short-term answers to current problems to attract public support from an electorate more concerned with their everyday lives.
Population studies continue to attract and require scientific knowledge and expertise grounded in wide-ranging hybrid disciplines from human geography, political economy and socio-legal studies to public administration, social policy, anthropology, urban planning and the natural sciences. While each of the briefings in this section focuses on a specific aspect of demographic change, the authors have in common their interest in understanding how the research policy interaction operates in different societal contexts, and what governments might learn from experiences in other jurisdictions.
The briefings address two central questions for researchers and policymakers: whether and how can demography influence policy, and whether and how can policy influence demography?
Key evidence
National and international statistical agencies regularly draw on demographic statistics to provide indicators that can be used to compare and benchmark performance over time and across regions. Despite attempts by official institutions to harmonise data collection techniques and methods, accelerated in recent years by the availability of digital tools, national conventions have not disappeared. Even within international institutions (United Nations, OECD, European Union), or national statistical agencies, the quality of available evidence about socio-demographic trends is variable.
Statistical evidence for European, Western and Asian countries indicates that, in the early 2020s,
- fertility rates are continuing to fall
- mortality rates are returning to a more normal level since the end of the pandemic
- population ageing is increasing due to falling fertility and greater longevity
- total population size remains relatively stable, largely due to migration
- family and household size and composition are changing
- family and generational relations are evolving in a climate of economic and political instability
- socio-economic inequalities are generally increasing between and within regions.
Data analysis and interpretation are confounded by conceptual, methodological and contextual factors, including: the disciplinary positions, theoretical and methodological perspectives of the researchers producing the evidence; the ideological standpoints of the policy audiences that the research is seeking to inform; and the ideational changes within populations. Statistical data therefore need to be complemented by evidence from qualitative studies. Multidisciplinary approaches are essential in illuminating context-related, purportedly causal explanations of the phenomena being studied.
Policy context
Just as different regions are affected to a greater or lesser extent by war, health and economic crises, the intensity, the timing and pace of demographic change vary across the globe. International comparisons suggest that not all governments were concerned to the same extent or at the same time by the changes described as the ‘second demographic transition’ in the late 20th century, characterised in developed countries by declining fertility, low mortality and the slowing down of net migration. Comparisons confirm that no one-size-fits-all policy solutions can be applied in response to the resulting social, economic and political challenges facing policymakers in the 21st century: how to deal with the needs of the baby boomers as they reach retirement age, how to resolve the labour shortages they leave behind, and how to offset age imbalances and socio-economic inequalities within populations.
Recent research reports marked disparities in
- the importance attributed in the media to demographic issues (population ageing, migration)
- the consistency of policy measures even in federal states (child and elder care, pension age, family support, integration of migrants, family-employment reconciliation)
- the relationship between the state, private and third sectors over time and place
- policy outcomes within and between regions
- the degree to which policy measures deemed to be successful in one jurisdiction can be transferred across borders.
Recommendations
Researchers and policymakers need to recognise that:
- evidence about the capacity of governments to influence the direction of demographic change through targeted policy measures is inconclusive
- while acknowledging the limitations of policy impacts on demographic change, efforts should continue to mitigate the speed and intensity of change by modeling future policy needs and developing multi-dimensional forecasting
- effective communication between researchers and policymakers is key to the brokerage of knowledge and the understanding of what works, when and why, and to opportunities to learn from experience in other environments
- in a context where hierarchies of evidence have become prevalent, disciplines / sectors / government departments should be encouraged to work together to develop multidisciplinary solutions to demographic challenges
- scientists need to work across disciplines using large-scale harmonised multipurpose databases in conjunction with qualitative evidence if they are to keep governments informed about impending threats and policy options to deal with them
- the flow of information though different media about evidenced-based policy decisions needs to be handled sensitively to avoid misinformation and scaremongering, while exploiting the transformative potential of media to change individual behaviour and influence policy in innovate ways.
Policymakers are advised to take account of the potential impacts of demographic change in areas where evidence from multiple sources is available to address key societal challenges such as:
- what provision will be needed for child and elder care, education and (re)training and more adaptable and affordable housing
- what measures should be taken to ensure suitable training and employment opportunities for the working age population
- how to adjust retirement age to avoid a shortfall in the economically active population
- how to facilitate flexible working arrangements to encourage more women to remain in the labour force
- how to reduce illegal migration while accommodating economic and climate migrants and attracting and integrating skilled migrant labour in areas of labour force shortages.
This briefing was written by Linda Haintrais FAcSS