Grounds for Optimism in Northern Ireland?
Frequently, Northern Ireland is a byword for political failure. When so much negative publicity continues to ascribe to the Province, it is refreshing to see that there are important ways in which its devolution settlement can still deliver for the betterment of the lives of its inhabitants. It is not all doom, gloom, and bad news!
We are approaching 30 years since the Belfast (Good Friday) Agreement [GFA]. That the peace settlement has endured, albeit subject to periodic direct challenge from dissidents, attests to the collective resolve of political leaders and the population they serve not to regress back into rekindling the violent conflict of the past. Concluded within the first year of Tony Blair’s New Labour Government in 1998, the Agreement represented an apex in British (and Irish) statecraft and high politics. It was the culmination of the efforts of the previous Conservative administration of John Major who, through a deeply personal resolve, had initiated the renewed search for an end to ‘The Troubles’, in concert with his Irish counterpart, and with the proactive support of the EU and USA. By the 1990s, much of the UK’s post-war consensus had deserted the contemporary political scene by that stage. However, securing peace and the good government of Northern Ireland was the one area of public policy spanning both domestic and foreign affairs to which all the main UK political parties and their respective leaders had reaffirmed their commitment. While the GFA was an imperfect settlement, in the subsequent period, the fact that it has allowed Northern Ireland to remain largely free of the violence which had disfigured it for over a quarter of a century remains one of the foremost examples of policy success.
In exploring these matters, our research serves as a corrective to those who dismiss devolution in Northern Ireland as a failure. Our recent article published in the journal Public Money and Management, entitled Devolution in Northern Ireland—Grounds for optimism?, summarises our latest work. Using the twin theoretical lenses of ‘positive public administration’ and ‘positive public policy’, we consider the performance of devolution at three levels: governance structures (macro level); the functioning of the Northern Ireland Assembly (meso level); and public services and policy outcomes (micro level). Thus, at that macro level, we contend that practitioners, particularly elected representatives in the Northern Ireland Assembly, should be given credit for ‘working’ the 1998 Belfast (Good Friday) Agreement despite its operational limitations and initially unfavourable odds, given the disappointments of earlier efforts to broker peace and restore devolution. At the meso level, the NI Assembly, as a legislative forum, provides evidence of active and ongoing law-making, despite some logjams and other obstacles to further headway. There are fewer grounds for optimism at the micro level evidenced by limited public confidence that the Northern Ireland Executive can deliver better public services. The extent to which the Northern Ireland Executive’s latest Programme for Government (PfG) outcomes are achieved will be the touchstone for devolution success in this regard.
Devolution studies tend to focus on Scotland and Wales, as well as the regional-local government nexus in England, while treating Northern Ireland as exceptional or problematic. Our research addresses a critical gap in the literature, by offering lessons for understanding devolution’s resilience and adaptability more broadly. We do not gloss over the serious problems which remain. Indeed, we openly acknowledge and highlight them. However, we demonstrate that there is considerable scope for locally elected and accountable politicians to constructively work together towards to enhancing and improving the collective good of society, regardless of their political aspirations and viewpoints.
As an Assembly and Executive, political leaders in Northern Ireland have considerable agency. Like all governments, they have choices – if sometimes difficult choices – to use the resources at their disposal to make positive impacts. In that well-worn phrase, ‘to govern is to choose’ – it is for Northern Ireland’s political elites to fulfil the potential that flows from that heavy burden of office.
For politicians both within the region as well as further afield; public administrators and policy makers in both Stormont as well as Whitehall (and indeed Dublin, Brussels and beyond); the media and wider general public, our work offers a timely reminder of the progress to date, and a welcome antidote to the regular diet of rancour and bitterness so readily associated with Stormont. We highlight examples of positive interventions in both public policy and public administration, while identifying those areas which remain in need of constructive engagement to address longstanding and intractable problems.
Devolution has been restored fully since early 2024, following a second lengthy period of suspension, although it is still by no means operating smoothly. However, it is important to appreciate that positive outcomes and achievements are possible – and have been realised – despite the understandable tendency to dwell upon instances of failure, inertia, or disappointment. In making the case for positivity, we do not deny that Northern Ireland’s public services are in crisis, with regular engagement by national and regional leaders concerning the scope for further measures to ameliorate the situation. We would point out that wrangling with central government over resources is an entirely normal activity, indeed constituting a ‘creative tension’ which is the hallmark of any, indeed all, effective intergovernmental relationships. The Scottish and Welsh devolved governments, as well as local authorities in all four component parts of the UK do so regularly and with some success, even if leaving them far from satisfied. However, advancing the case for more resources from Westminster does not excuse inaction on the part of local political leaders, nor absolve them from taking the tough decisions incumbent upon them around public sector reform, including institutional reform, progress on which has been stalled for too long, as well as grasping the nettle in respect of revenue raising.
Likewise, the preparedness of Westminster to indulge petulance or sheer bad behaviour through making additional one-off disbursements to Northern Ireland, serves only to foster this irresponsibility. The examples of progress and success we illustrate in our article show that, when of a mind to do so, the devolved institutions can deliver. Within the considerable resources available to them, therefore, our challenge is for them to build on these foundations to address other acute problems particularly in respect of health, education, housing, the environment, and criminal justice.
We believe that by accentuating what has been accomplished, it is possible to fashion an environment more conducive to building on this progress. In both academic and practitioner terms, we believe that our work serves as a corrective to the traditional posture of readily ‘finding fault’ but which suffers from offering few suggestions as to how things might be approached or done differently. In other words, being realistic does not imply being pessimistic. There are grounds to remain upbeat and hopeful.
In advancing our arguments, we recommend a change to current ethos and practice in the public sector/government within Northern Ireland. Thus, we entreat all those charged with ensuring the good government of Northern Ireland, in harness with national politicians and other stakeholders including through the various intergovernmental fora across the island of Ireland and that spans these islands, to work constructively towards ensuring that the best possible value for money and quality of service is provided to the people they are there to serve.
About the author
Paul Carmichael joined the University of Ulster in 1992 and is Professor of Public Policy & Government. From 2000-16, he was Honorary Secretary of the Political Studies Association of the United Kingdom and Vice Chair of the Public Administration Committee of the Joint University Council (2004-09). He has been a Visiting Fellow in the Centre for British Studies at the Humboldt University of Berlin since 2000. Paul is a Fellow of the Academy of Social Sciences and was conferred as a Senior Fellow of the Higher Education Academy in 2016. His teaching and research interests focus inter alia on local government, devolution and intergovernmental relations, and the civil service in Northern Ireland and more generally across the United Kingdom, as well as in comparative perspective, on which he has published regularly.
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